Wednesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The major stock indexes are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 113 points and the Nasdaq down 28 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.
There was no major economic news posted this morning, but a couple of less influential reports gave us favorable results. For example, the monthly employment update from payroll processor ADP showed a smaller number of jobs than was expected. And the ISM service index (sister to Monday’s ISM manufacturing index but much less important) showed a reading well below expectations. However, I believe this morning’s improvement in bonds is much more a result of the stock selling than the minor economic news.
If the major stock indexes continue to move lower, we could see mortgage rates follow suit later today. In fact, they are already down from where they were when lenders began pricing this morning. This means that a small rebound in the Dow and Nasdaq should not be of much concern as there is plenty of room to give before funds shift away from bonds and back into stocks.
Tomorrow has two reports scheduled for release, both form the Labor Department. They will release their 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early tomorrow morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise slightly tomorrow morning. It is expected to show a 1.0% increase in productivity.
The second is last week’s unemployment figures, also at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to say that 400,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, down a fairly large amount from the previous week. That is worth noting because this data usually doesn’t have a heavy influence on mortgage rates unless it shows a large variance from forecasts, which this would qualify if forecasts are accurate. Another reason for watching tomorrow’s release is the fact that the entire week fell within April and therefore will be included in Friday’s monthly report. If last week’s claims did show a large drop (or increase), analysts may revise their projections for April’s monthly report that will be posted Friday. Accordingly, tomorrow’s weekly data may have a bigger impact on the markets and mortgage rates than it usually does.
Information courtesy of Joe Patterson with Princeton Capital (JoePatterson@princetoncap.com)
No comments:
Post a Comment